You and I are on similar journeys. In the past 12 months I have also been sorting through the various views on development in Africa. My interest was triggered by a terrific project run in Tanzania - The School of St Jude. This school provides free education to academically gifted children from poor families in Arusha, Tanzania.

Gemma Sisia, the founder, is so capable that the school is growing by 170 kids a year and a second campus is already underway.

It’s hard to see how this could be not a good thing. But there are so many views out there. I have enjoyed the journey of exploration. Thanks for your blog - I’ve subscribed. You may find some interesting material and references on my blog — www.schoolstjude.blogspot.com.

Like you, I have some doubts about how the Sachs villages can be scaled up. Scaling up will need broad investment in infrastructure like roads, water, sanitation and power. Sachs hasn’t addressed these larger issues yet. Somehow, though, I suspect that he’ll take that on, when the time comes.

One answer to this is to say “well, when people get wealthy enough, they’lll stop having kids” which appears to be true, but the goal, presumably, is to help people now, not as some vague point in a future that doesn’t look like it’s arriving.

Obviously when health conditions for kids are iffy, asking people to have fewer kids is problematic — which is precisely why I raise the issue. What is the grand stategy here? Simon Bland’s point, while correct, is not addressing the full problem. In the absence of some sort of reality based plan (as opposed to wishful thinking) for how to ensure that whatever surplus is generated isn’t pissed away through population growth, this all strikes me as no more useful that the past fifty years worth of aid — occasionally useful, but basically ineffectual.

RESPONSE FROM RAV: Sodded if I know, Maynard. Jeffrey Sachs points to Bangladesh as an example of somewhere where the “demographic transition” has taken place in a generation - and calls for scaling-up of contraception support to help the process.

I’m afraid I’m not familiar with the specific Simon Bland comment you’re referring to, can you elaborate? ta.

Aid and Growth: What Does the Cross-Country Evidence
Really Show?
(forthcoming, Review of Economics and Statistics)
Raghuram G. Rajan and Arvind Subramanian
July 2007

You can find it here — http://www.iie.com/publications/papers/subramanian0707.pdf

The authors note that they saw robust findings on the importance of institutions and policies for growth, but not for aid. Maybe the new approaches that tie aid to improved institutions and policies will have an effect, not through the aid, but through the improved governance! Of course, that will depend on donors getting it right with respect to their demands re governance - the World Bank doesn’t have a good track record in that respect.