There’s a section in the [1] UN Millennium Project Report entitled “Getting started in 2005 - launching a decade of bold ambition”. The first few sentences make depressing reading. “There is still enough time to meet the Millennium Development Goals - though barely,” it notes. “Without a bold breakthrough in the coming year, a large number of countries that could still achieve the goals will be consigned to failure.” (p50)

Oh dear. Indeed, for all the celebrations that met 2005’s [2] historic aid pledges by the G8 at Gleneagles, Scotland, the truth is that a serious bid to meet the goals has not yet begun. The extra aid promised [3] has yet to materialise. It seems likely, therefore, that the MDG’s won’t be met everywhere by the agreed deadline, 2015.

And yet, the goals remain the most comprehensive and internationally supported development framework ever agreed (though they certainly [4] have their critics). So even if 2015 is unachievable, aiming for 2017 seems better than giving up. So let’s pretend that, a little behind schedule, the world is now eager and ready to fund and support the UNMP’s recommendations. Where do we start?

1. Every developing country that wants to be eligible for support should prepare an MDG-focussed [5] poverty reduction strategy, a plan to achieve the goals complete with precise costings and measurements of the aid required.
2. Fast-track countries, that are most suitable to receive support, should be identified (more on this below).
3. International agencies should immediately begin working with poor countries to train thousands of teachers, doctors, planning professionals, engineers, and “village specialists” in health, agriculture, forestry, road maintenance and other basic skills. This is to ensure that once infrastructure projects such as new schools and hospitals begin, they aren’t messed up by lack of staff, as has often been the case in the past.
4. The “[6] quick wins“, cheap interventions proven to be effective, should be implemented in all as widely as possible. It would take just two years, the report argues, to distribute anti-malaria bed nets to all at-risk African children.
5. Middle-income countries like China and South Africa, while they have their own poverty issues, should also be invited to join the coalition working towards the goals for poor countries. While their ability to contribute financially may be limited, they can offer expertise, training and certain key cheap materials - for example, China produces artemisinin, a key ingredient of anti-malaria medicine. (p50-55)

But for many rich-country observers, point 2 is the key obstacle. With so many poor countries, with widely varying standards of government, and different needs, how can we identify those best suited to receive extensive support straight away?

Fortunately, the report notes, someone has beaten us to it. In fact, five separate systems have recently assessed poor countries’ governance and economic policies according to fairly strict standards. They are:

• The Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative, the major debt relief system launched in the late 1990s;
• The US’ [7] Millennium Challenge Account, an aid initiative launched by the Bush administration;
• The [8] African Peer Review Mechanism, in which African countries submit their policies and governance to review by other African countries;
• The poverty reduction strategy process itself. Although a true process for assessing MDG-focussed poverty plans is yet to be put in place, countries’ existing PRSP’s are assessed by the World Bank and IMF, and several have recently been praised for their quality and comprehensiveness.
• and a recent World Bank study identified 18 countries that have good policies and a history of using aid well, and development needs that could see them absorb another $30 billion in aid. (p51-52)

Of these systems, the Millennium Challenge has some of the [9] highest standards , with just [10] 19 of Africa’s 54 countries having so far qualified, including Ghana, Mozambique and Niger. HIPC has been [11] similarly strict, with 19 African countries having completed the process of qualification and a further eight having begun the process. All in all, the report argues, reviews of these assessment mechanisms would bring up a list of “at least a dozen” countries eligible for immediate fast-track support, with Senegal and Tanzania likely to be included. (p50)

So, by identifying these countries and getting immediately started with investment and training, and by encouraging poor countries to prepare detailed plans for meeting the MDG’s, it’s still possible, the report argues, to get the process off to a flying start.

Finally, next time, we’ll remind ourselves of the argument for taking the steps necessary to meet the goals.