World Bank - Breaking the conflict trap

30 July 2006
14:02

Chap 5: reducing risk

· 10 years postconflict period after peace settlement carries high danger of re-conflict
· Economic and social effects of war make worse
· Good policies can reduce re-conflicts and so, total number of wars

Economic and social policies
· THINK - it seems a lot like reoffending-prevention with crime
· Conflict military spending 2% higher than peacetime - goes up under threat of conflict tho innefective at stopping conflict.
· Then govts maintain combat levels of mili spending after as precaution- in fact it increases chance of re-conflict as both sides are remaining on war footing
· Growth very important to maintaining peace
        ? Fortunately countries do generally 'bounce back' - growth 1% higher than pre-peace
        ? Growth spurt happens 4-6 years after peace
· Policy matters more after conflict - CPIA score more important
· But postconflict politics makes reform difficult
· LICUS approach focuses on easiest and most effective reforms to produce specialized postconflict reform programme
· Relative importance of structural, macroeconomic and social policies shifts postconflict towards social and away from macroeconomic
· Social policies reassure rebels and prevent return to conflict
· Infrastructure spending needed
· Reassures investors
· Property and rule of law must be reestablished
· Encourage return of exported wealth through competitive exchange rates
· Each point lower CPIA equals 0.3% of GDP less aid on average
· Usual aid pattern after conflict is initial burst but not successful transfer to long-term aid programme - money that stopped during war now needed elsewhere
· Total aid received in ten postconflict years often less than normal
· Between four and five years postconflict aid is much more effective than normal at inducing growth
· In fact it entirely accounts for growth spurts at this time
· Disarmament, demobilization are good practise but only work with support for reintegration
        ? BUT no more than other needy groups to avoid resentment
· Diasporas a risk as fund violent factions. Must be brought into economy in positive ways, business links etc.
· Democracy does not reduce risk.
· External peacekeeping or military presence usually valuable
        ? Must be impartial and seen to be
        ? Regional groups often the answer but must see that they aren't themselves interested
· Growth policies must be screened for grievance-enhancing or peace-threatening aspects
        ? Eg resist temptation to allow public spending to follow growth, which will happen least in rebel areas
· Economic diversification is safer, don't rely on mining etc
· Overall global focus must shift from military to aid, esp 4-6 year period.
· 2% growth improvement over ten years and 2% of GDP switch from primary commodities halves the chance of new war.

Health policies
· Doctor absenteeism often around 45%. NGO doctors better, or pay public ones more.
· NGO ones also lead to happier patients!
· Before doctors go in long term you need clean water, sanitation etc
· IDP camps must be carefully placed
· People should contribute to cost or building of public works
· Educate refugees and soldiers on HIV spread risks
· Give bed nets to community groups, not direct to individuals
·[ It appears WB has accepted much of greed-not-grievance thesis.]

Chap six: agenda for international action
· Development is key reason to want to reduce civil war for West
· Regional neighbours in particular
· No truck with idea we shouldn't get involved.
· Preventative measures will almost always save money given high cost of military intervention
· Landmine ban, diamond regulation, and bribery ban already done much good
· There's no one magic policy but several are useful especially done together:
· Aid
        ? Pay it at key time, gradually bringing it in.
        ? Focus on poorest countries
        ? Partly should be skill aid, eg financing return of diaspora brains, to ensure LUCIS policy reform
        ? More (yes! Even the WB)
        ? Constitutional conditionality - require just sticking to constitution.
· Natural resources
        ? Tightening of money laundering etc will all help prevent rebel groups' funding
        ? Ban "booty futures"
        ? Don't pay ransoms, and ban ransom insurance
        ? Reduce drug trade, eg legal supply for registered addicts
        ? Put in place things to counteract price shocks, which severely affect commodities-dependent countries
        ? Don't increase your own subsidies in response to price shocks
        ? Local govts must use resource revenue well and be seen to do so; need international reporting standard
        ? More scrutiny of potentially illegal payments and investments abroad
        ? Develop ways of punishing corrupt heads of state
· Arms
        ? Honest broker services by neighbours with international backing to reduce arms on both sides
        ? Plan military engagement/peacekeeping with aid to ensure god sequence with no risk moments
        
One in ten countries in civil war at any time (!) Proposes extra MDG of halving conflict by 2015.
Interesting the total non-recognition of idea that armed rebellion could ever be positive