Milanovic: "The two faces of globalisation"
19 August 2006
18:37
· Poorly qualified statements in favour of globalisation (eg Dollar quote) become misleading when quoted by media.
· 1870-1913 presented as original golden age of globalisation
· Two opposing views: Left anti and Right anti.
· In fact both views correct as Glob has ups and downs.
· PRO's on C19 Glob:
? Migration to US
? Infrastructure in caribbean
? Capital flow to Russia, Argentina
? Easy passport-free travel
· Negatives:
? Enforced through violent conquest
? Not just tied to colonialism but part and parcel of it
? 10 million die in Congo etc etc
· Studies also tend to say "globalisation" but really mean "post-slave trade atlantic economy"
· Evidence comes from rising wages in America (?) shows convergence
· In fact the evidence on convergence even for those rich countries in the north atlantic economy is very very mixed.
· Prior to 1870 we see massive divergence
· Also evidence points to massive divergence in China and India
· Declines in income, through pillage or deind, part of gobalisation
· Colonial policies prevented industrialisation
· Manufacturing declines across developed world 1800-1913
· But doesn't think this caused growth of West like dependency theory does.
· Africa GDP per capita grows far more 1960-78 (import substitution) than 78-98
· 1960 1,514; 1978 2147; 1998 2432 (1995 prices)
· BUT globalisers say that includes bad countries with bad policies
· China
? On its own can push pro-global argument
? Presented as example of globalised capitalism
? 20% GDP generated by state industries!
? 1⁄3 industrial output
? TVE sector communal but best growth.
? Isn't he just eliding neoliberalism with globalisation? Is globalised state sector possible?
? Lots of "non-globalisers" forced into this position by slump in commodity prices.
? In fact both China and India globalise AFTER growth stats.
· Globaliser view sees WW1, Communism, Cold War all preventing "finishing of globalisation."
· This plainly poppycock! The depression??
· Trade rules biased - R&D subsidies protected, industrial support ones not
· As well as Latin America and Africa, failure of "model pupils" Moldova, Kryghyz Republic, Armenia shows neoliberal development failure
· CHECK Do scary stats on Africa prove Monbiot claim that Aid can't work without a change in trade rules?
