Africa Commission Report

26 August 2006
10:51

NEPAD and Africa Review Mechanism
25 million infected with HIV in Africa
Zambia every third child will be an orphan
Malaria biggest child killer
All MDC subsidies add up to more than income of whole of Africa!
STAT 25% us oil from Africa next ten years
STAT 24 countries have 5% growth or more in 2003 (!)
Religion - esp christianity and Wahabbi Islam - increasing
Letters through church in Congo
Need models of democracy and development which recognise and work with patronage networks etc - eg get Shamans to help deliver healthcare
Tol retained in Somaliland (clan-level justice)

Restraints on government capacity:
        ? No money for infrastructure
        ? Poor data collection
        ? Civil servants poorly trained
        ? Public service workers dying of AIDS
        ? Aid-instigated project units get jobs done but don't build long-term capacity
        ? Aid must be long-term allocated to allow better planning
        ? Steps to retain skilled staff both in country and in difficult positions
        STAT ? 49% africans blame problems on govt, 16% on colonial powers, 11% on rich countries.
        ? Judiciary reform needed
        ? Media needs jornalism training!
        ? Help for local civil society groups
        ? Transparency key to ending corruption - especially on mineral wealth
        ? West should crack down on bribe payments and find and repatriate stolen African money
                § STAT Total stolem money held = half all external debt!
                § Prevention laws, idenitification procedures, and asset freezing, confiscation and repatriation systems
                § G8 hasn't ratifie UN corruption convention
                § It's petty corruption that matters most
                § Public procurement: Africa must crack down on bribes, West must make ECAs enforce
                
Conflict p48
        ? More refugees in Africa than anyone else
        ? BUT overall it's ooking good - elections in DRC, peace in Mozambique, possibly Sierra Leone, Angola, Somalia, Sudan.
        STAT ? I year UN peacekeeping budget for Africa - June 04 - June 05 - $2.86 billion
        STAT ? 6 year's aid to Africa - $7 billion
        ? Focus needs to be on prevention, strengthening institutions
                § Apart from anything else is much much cheaper
                § Need strong institutions that can deal with grievances
                § AK-47 $6!
                § Whatever triggers it, it's the underlying conditions policy must tackle
                § Aid must be adapted to conflict prevention
                § STOP SELLING THEM GUNS! And get an Arms Trade Treaty
                § Kimberley process approach to conflict diamonds needs to be applied across a common definition of conflict resources.
                § Foreign companies need to stop hiring security who wind up involved in conflict
        ? Proper support for peacekeeping African Standby Force
        ? Support detection and mediation schemes
        ? Set up UN Peacebuilding Commission
        ? Speed up UN peacekeeping deployment
        ? Half all countries ending war are back in it in 5 years
                § Old issues not solved
                § Infrastructure fucked
                § Old homes occupied - reintegration issues; new jobs etc needed
                § Special efforts for women and child soldiers
                § Reconciliation requires beefed up justice system
[Generally lots more policy and legal stuff and less aid/debt stuff than expected]

Investing in people p61
· 1/6 sub saharan Africa - 100 million people - chronically poor eg scraping day-to-day
· Poorest those excluded from govt etc help by stigma of aids, or cos young, disabled, woman
· Africa 50% under 17!
· Women contribute more economically than men - 70% agriculture
· But tend to lose land and cattle in disputes with in-laws on husband's death - many countries they can't own husband's land
· Primary school increased 48% 90-01
· Education pledge needs $7-8bn/year for
        ? More teachers
        ? Getting girls in - no fees, school meals
        ? Life & vocational skills teaching
· I in 6 die before 5th birthday
· Health fucked, spending low, decades of underinvestment
· Govts have increased spend since 2000
· Aid needed of $10 and then $20bn/year
        ? Train doctors
        ? Commit to buy AIDS and other drugs to spur development, eg microbicide gel
        ? Better donor co-ordination, so don't demand different drugs etc
        ? Abolition of primary care fees very cheap as so few paid anyway, but would raise access
        ? Basic prevention like bed nets could save 2/3 of infant deaths
· 42% lack clean drinking water
        ? Clean water makes HIV drugs work better
        ? Reduces malaria
        ? Allows milk powder use by HIV+ mothers
        ? But we're REDUCING water aid (!)
· Social security -
        ? In cash form - benefits
        ? In non-cash - job schemes, free healthcare etc
        ? Security - allowing female inheritance
        ? All evidence shows is cheaper than waiting for crisis
        ? Requires predictable long-term aid: $2bn rising to $5 for vulnerable children
        ? STAT 90% AIDS sufferers are 15-49 - working age
        ? Tends towards women
        ? --> lots and lots of orphans --> soldiers, prostitutes etc
        ? Needs greater understanding of cultural issues - ally with religious leaders to alter attitudes
        ? Existing commitments must be met and extra $10bn/year
        
· Over half money needed should go on education, health.

growth

Botswana shows growth possible - once one of worst now middle-income despite massive aids rate
Diamond money invested properly
Pov reduc thru growth requires:
        Investment conditions
        stable economic policies
        contracts enforced
        Competition laws etc
        This for dom as well as f investment
                = nepad inv climate facility
Multilat inv guan agency should have special fund for inv in africa
$10-20bn/yr for infrastructure to allow 7% growth
Agri 80% of livelihoods so even if ind is aim will bring pov gains now
Need breadbaskets - food grown neither subs or export but for african famine areas. Reduce need for imports. Govt investment in infra
Plan to convert proceeds of invest into youth emp, edu etc, to include poor in growth

Govt infrastructure: $20bn/yr needed for roads etc
PPP may be best route

Agri:
        ? Need double irrigation by 2015 - should increase funding 50% and focus on small scale
        ? 50% agri lost on way to market - better roads will pay for selves quickly
        ? Support homegrown research in unis
        ? Develop domestic markets
        ? Secure tensure on land esp women

Urbanisation
        ? Too fast! Premature, driven by insta etc
        ? 72% urban pop live in slums - [NOT shanty towns?]
        ? Governance key - new NEPAD efforts on it -decentralisation, local govt capacity building
        ? UN-HABITAT Slum Upgrading Facility
        
Climate change
        ? Pov plans must have sustainability built in
        ? Should get wetter in tropics and drier in desert
        ? Coast will rise, Tanzania under threat
        ? Economic cost huge - floods take Mozambique from 8-2% in 2000
        ? $100m over ten years for collecting climate data

Involving poor people
        ? Specific policies are needed to include poor in growth
        ? Maj of agri and urban work is in informal economy - no credit, business services etc
                § Esp women
        ? Banks need to support spread of microfinance
        ? Business must adapt to needs of Africa, eg paying suppliers promptly, transparency etc
        ? Should trget local staff for management, provide business training etc
        ? $100 million enterprise initiative
        ? $20mn to UN growing sustainable business initiative
        
Trade p89
· Africa share of trade from 6% 1980 to 2% 2001
· Fallen behind by staying still - because of reliance on primary exports
· Trade barriers part of problem
· But so is producing the wrong things.
· Improve transport
        ? Land and port costs act as massive export tax
        ? Hugely complex and slow customs procedures must be cleaned up, checkpoint bribery stopped
        ? Inside-Africa trade barriers need to come down - 12% trade to other African countries at pres
        ? Unify truck axle regulations, rail guages etc
        ? Customs source of govt income but costs of smuggling etc equal
        ? Can be done: Mozambique, Dar Es Salaam
· Develop marketing for small farmers to encourage move from primary commodities
· Drop CAP and US farm subsidies - eg help 10 million W African cotton farmers
· US/EU Import tarriffs much higher than on manuf.
· Things like H&S pesticide standards should bearin mind whether excluding Africans
· Calls for immediate cotton and sugar sub trade-distorting) break, and end to export and trade-dis subs by 2010. DEFINE trade-distortng? - non includes research etc
· Preferences not working cos of complexity and over-interpretation- rules of origin
· Rules of origin should allow manufacture from imported materials, and left-out poor countries should be included
· Could raise growth 1%
· Should support transition to free trde, help for losers, help with lost revenue etc
· Rejects any timetabled conditions at Doha

Finding the money
"quantum leap" = double aid in five years
Total cost of proposals is extra $75bn/yr
Africans not under-taxed - pay as much as other LDCs
Proposes 1/3 Africa 2/3 aid at first to get to $32.5bn/yr
Then extra $25mn aid once proven can use it

SMILE AID WORKS:
        ? Education in tanzania
        ? Increase in poor healthcare in uganda
        ? Smallpox eradicated by aid money
        ? Mozambique 12% growth when heavily aided
BUT:
        ? Allocated in uncoordinated ways
        ? Vary too much year on year
        ? Can make things worse if badly done
        ? Tied aid - to donor's products - should be scrapped
        ? Monitoring too detailed
SO:
        ? More grants not loans
        ? Longer term predictable aid
        ? Into nat govt where good, into loc gov-building where not
        ? $4bn/yr fund to cushion shocks like nat disasters
· Believe absorptive capacity enough for $25bn/yr
· Aid can be a hand up - Botswana, South Korea
· Debt:
        ? Pov reduction not "sustainability" should fuel debt decisions
        ? 100% for poorest sub-saharan countries
        ? Relief should end in 2015 so new loans not taken

RAISING THE MONEY:
· Everyone must commit to 0.7
· That should be reoriented towards poorest countries
· Front-loading necessary for creating "virtuous circles" - maximum impact - IFF
· Backs flight tax plan in addition to IFF

Making it happen
· Conditions for success best for 30 years
· Africans must shape and lead
· Interconnected problems require interconnected solutions
· Best way is aid to go straight to governments - makes monitoring easy and ensures spent in line with plans
· BUT only where there is a plan. Where not, sector-wide approach or direct to NGO's
· Through-NGO's approach can't build govt capacity so is last resort
· AU, NEPAD, Regional Economic Communities, Economic Commission for Africa, African Development Bank all need support
· World Bank must move to grants and do more in Africa
· IMF can help with transparency by publishing govt accounts (!)
· Both need less conditions: just transparency, and growth/pov red focus. Let people judge
· WTO should abandon reciprocity on Africa
· More African representation on Sec Coun, IMF, WB - and these democratised
· Open competition for IMF & WB jobs
· Monitoring commission to check up on everything
· 70's
· Brandt Commission suggests reforms to ecnonomic system. Enacted piecemeal
· Initial proposal one-tenth the proportion that marshall plan needed
· Al-quaeda associates at work in East Africa

RECCOMENDATIONS

Governance
· Capacity building
        ? West: Support Peer Review Mechanism
        ? Govts: develop capacity strategies
        ? Funding for unis and institutes of technology
· Accountability
        ? Parliament-strengthing agreements
        ? Media development agency
        ? Pressure for corporate transparency
        ? Support things like Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative
        ? Timber importers must make sure legal
· Corruption
        ? ECA transparency on both sides; implement OECD Bribery statement
        ? Repatriate stolen assets
        ? Ratify UN convention on corruption
· Information
        ? $60m/yr for statistical collection
        
Peace and Security
· Prevention
        ? Donor peace assessments for policies
        ? Arms Trade Treaty; better monitoring of trade
        ? Common definition of conflict resources
        ? UN expert panel on nat res - violence link
        ? OECD guidelines for companies in high risk countries
· Building regional capacity
        ? Fund 50% Peace Fund
        ? Clarify roles of regional orgs and UN
        ? Establish peacebuilding commission
· Post- peacebuilding
        ? Support Peacebuilding Commission
        ? Finance arrears clearance of postwar states, and provide aid

Leaving no one out
· Education
        ? 7-8bn/yr
        ? Plans for girls
        ? Commit to abolish fees, donors to fund where necessary
        ? Teacher training to get ratio to 1:40
        ? Relevant curricula
· Health
        ? $7bn for rebuilding over 5 years
        ? Training
        ? Govts commit to 15% target; donors help with $20bn/yr
        ? 100% funding for Fund to Fight AIDS TB & Malaria; Polio Eradication fund; Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunisation
        ? Support WHO TB/HIV integration scheme
        ? Nets for pregnants
        ? Funding for parasitic disease and micronutrient deficiency treatment and prev
        ? Access to sex health as donor and govt priority
        ? Advance purchase agreements for drugs to spur research
· Water: increase funding
· AIDS
        ? Co-ordinate better
        ? $10bn/yr
· Protecting vulnerable
        ? $5-6 bn/yr for orphans etc
        ? Support UN Orphan Framework and NEPAD equiv.
        ? Direct support to pan-African women and children's rights groups
        
Growth
· Aim is 7% growth by 2010 - and increased partic in growth by poor
· Promoting growth
        ? $20bn/yr for infrastructure
        ? Support investment climate thing and inv guaran fund, as above
        ? Increase arable irrigation
        ? Women's land rights etc
· Including the poor
        ? $100mn enterprise fund to encourage small business
        ? Plans on youth employment
· Business: social and env responsibility. Govts: more partnership with business
· Environment: build sustainability into pov red strategies; donors too; cleaner energy

Trade
· Trade capacity
        ? Remove internal barriers
        ? Reform customs
        ? Improve infra and comms
· Access to rich world markets
        ? Doha (err!)
        ? Massive trade-dis sub reductions (as above)
        ? Higher-income LEDCs too
        ? Minimal conditions on aid, allowing reform in own time
        ? Review GATT to strengthen Special Treatment
        ? Careful with product standard regulations
· Helping Africa adjust
        ? Drop barriers, loosen rule of origin - see above
        
Paying for it
· Aid quality
        ? Annual powwow of OECD and African countries to discuss quality of aid
        ? Untied, predictable, harmonised.
        ? Grants not loans
        ? Lose conditionality, replace with coordination with domestic monitoring
        ? Shock facility
· Double - add $25bn/yr - now, and another $25b/yr in 2010 if changes made
        ? Paid for by 0.7, IFF, and new ideas
· 100% debt relief

Making it happen
· Strengthen African Dev Bank & Econ Com for Africa
· Changing the multilaterals:
        ? More WTO, IMF & WB focus on Africa
        ? UN better co-ordination
        ? More African rep on boards of IMF, WB
        ? Councils with political representatives to make decisions
        ? Global open competition for headships
        ? Donor monitoring
        ? Expand Security Council
· Independent monitoring mechanism.